Nehezen tudom elképzelni, hogy a likviditás, amit eddig a fed belepumpált a világgazdaságba ne csapódott volna le a a nyersanyagpiacon. Itt nem csak a közvetlen hatásnak, hanem a várakozásokon keresztüli áremelkedésnek is nagy szerepe lehet.

"...Nonetheless, we have to mention a 1997 research paper was co-authored by Ben Bernanke on how to react the Fed to higher oil prices. It is quite an interesting issue to find the answer how the Fed will handle current uptrend in commodity and oil prices as well. Dudley is one of the strongest supporters of Fed actions to bolster the economy and his views are highly-ranked in shaping the policy behind the curve. Along with his opinion we find that Bernanke is on the same view on oil prices effect on the policy. He has written the mentioned paper with Mark Gertler and Mark Watson in 1997, the title is Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks. This research empirically analyzes the role of monetary policy from that of oil prices. They find that “the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy”. All in all, what the paper suggests that the Fed will continue to keep rates low while serious rate-hikes would create more problems in job situation and could create higher Treasury yields which would hurt the economy in the short-term. As Dudley highlighted, there has been little pass-through from rising oil prices into the core inflation we have explored that low base rate implies more positive effects for the economic growth than rolling back monetary stimuli to prevent inflation risks."

link az anyaghoz:
econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9382/RR97-25.PDF